Migrants, COVID-19, Businesses and Media

For a while now, we have heard about the migrant crisis in the urban centers of India. In fact, it is not just metros but many tier 2 & 3 cities which house traditional and modern industrial centers. They have probably migrated to escape rural poverty, if at all we want to call it that.

Why migrate?

For a long time, I wondered why do people migrate. Is it just the basic needs that are not being taken care of ? Is it that they want more out of life? Is it debt? Is it the allure of urban success, which probably remains the only success of our times? Is it peer pressure? Is it social pressure? Is it something more sinister at work (leaving it to your imagination)?

We have seen all sorts of people migrate in recent times to these cities. There is a large Indian diaspora spread across the world. I would like to talk about this first and then move onto this topic at hand. Closely listening to the ones who have migrated, the reasons both said and unsaid are:

1. The promise of the better: better jobs, better pay, better quality of life etc. which is the core and higher freedom, materially richer, cleaner administration, less crimes which is the context (please note, all of these can be challenged and it is question of definition and measurement)
2. Escape the status-quo: change is what has happened, why stagnate maybe the reason to escape the trap of stagnation. It also helps one embrace the modern day values of individualism and personal freedom.
3. Peer and social pressure: everybody is doing it and so should I. There is deep fear of missing of missing out. We have celebrated Western educated people, be it scientists, doctors, journalists and so on, so that must be the only way.

The story of development or having a good lifestyle if a combination of all the 3 which has been made to sound like a linear and only way to the top (which it might be when you consider corporate jobs, entrepreneurship, modern day academia, engineering, even entertainment and so on).

Please note a majority of the people who migrate come from relatively well to do backgrounds while many of them are also low skilled labour who make a saving by forex. Primarily the reasons I have mentioned above are for the former set of people. Now why I did talk about them which represents such a minuscule and also those migrants are not the context of the existing crisis. But they are. They have a domino effect on the population and results in the move for the better(simply they are some sort of thought leaders.) Or in my own words they add to the pressure on the rest of the population.

Now coming back to the contextual migrants- why are they migrating?

Take the 3 reasons that I have mentioned and add the following to that-

1. Policy- This is hearsay, but will quote anyway- Most developed economies have 5% of population in agriculture but we have 50%. That must change. So over financed corporations along with “job creation” policies, especially in the knowledge and consumption economy woo the labour force to urban concentrates.
2. Poverty- This is real. Rural economies are self contained in many ways and one small natural disaster or a personal tragedy can result in people staring down at hunger and so on. But our villages are equally resilient and support the ones who are going through these troubles.
3. Unemployment- There are no jobs in villages. Jobs are concentrated in the urban cities. With large families and little land they are not able to sustain. Consumption is also higher in the urban centers which help create more jobs there.

These along with the former 3 form a potent driver for the people to move and do jobs in the cities or move abroad as semi skilled or unskilled labour. So we have people moving from one place to another all the time.

So, with these as possible reasons why people move, do we look at this as a problem or resign to the fact that this is the only model of development. But still there is no clarity on what is the problem- People migrating is also a symptom. While execution remains the problem always, ideas also need to be adapted to the execution ease/ effectiveness.

The problem(s) can be:

1. Modern day “Isms” favour a certain section of the society
2. Information asymmetry remains the core of the executional challenges
3. Misuse of tools meant to address these issues
4. Nobody is paying attention to the local jobs, as there is no “scale” and other benefits

But one thing is certain. Large scale migration is not the long term solution to these problems. For example, let us say we have person with a broken arm. We should fix that first rather than saying we need to improve his leg strength. Though the underlying problem might be that of weak bones. What I am saying is that we cannot fix a non problem. That might be worse than the problem itself.

But still, we remain unsure of the “actual” problem. Let us continue to look at how we have addressed these problems even though we do not have that clarity

Have there been attempts to fix the “actual” problem?

This is hard to say. Let us look at our post independence history.

1. 40 years of socialism (India’s own)
2. 30 years of capitalism (again India’s own)

There have been massive outlays in the food security area. PDS and MNREGA are some examples to address these, and these are in the 30 year period of reform (this I believe is a misnomer) and opening up of the economy.

There have been massive FDIs and FIIs which we have seen to create jobs. There have been tax sops, SEZs and so on for corporation to setup operations on the Indian soil to service the world.

By the looks of it, it has not solved the “actual” problem in anyway. Obviously one could go into the numbers and prove it either way. But that is not the point. In terms of creating an utopian society, which at least is (should) be the aim of policy and even though the effectiveness of policy is far from it. Is it a zero sum game then? Has no one benefitted from it? Has everyone benefited from it? Has the majority benefitted from it? I think the safest statement to make is it has benefitted a few. Is that good enough? So who has benefitted from either of these governance models is a topic of another discussion.

So what has happened is that, given the dichotomy of our policy which switches as per convenience depending on the context we have seen migration on one hand and labour shortage across the board on the other hand etc. while continuing to have these problems that have been mentioned before.

What is the crisis?

Before going into the crisis, let us look at what has happened to these urban centers (I am going to conveniently ignore the export problem for now, but it will get subsumed into these only, albeit indirectly).

1. Population explosion in the urban centers
2. Traffic snarls, accidents
3. Pollution- noise, water and air
4. Deforestation
5. Resetting of supply chains and increase in the supply chain radius
6. Lack of (clean) water, air and food
7. Cultural implications
8. Governance problems including agent problems
9. The new and improved bonded labour
10. Harassment and crime — policing related problems
11. Healthcare issues- both lack of it and cost
12. Degraded quality of life

And many more. While many of these cannot be directly attributed to migration, it is contributing in one form or another. It is anyway a ticking bomb, waiting to explode.

So what has happened now?

1. An unknown disease with no drug to cure or a vaccine to prevent (initial figures of mortality at >3% and <5%)
2. A rapidly communicable disease (R0 of 3–4 )

How do we handle it?

People/ Governments/ Virologists/Doctors had 2 ideas:

1. Let the disease spread(controlled) for the less risky groups. Develop herd immunity
2. Go on a massive lockdown. Slow the exponential rate of growth.

There are other hybrid ideas which came to the fore as well.

1. Controlled spread by contact tracing and localised quarantine
2. Zoning with varying lockdown
3. Testing and isolation

And so on.

While the hybrids have been in place depending on how the disease has spread in those places, it is safe to say that most of them have quickly abandoned the first ideas (herd immunity)

India chose massive lockdown. It had benefits:

1. Buy time to prepare for large scale hospitalisations (capacity augmentation)
2. Testing capacity increase

Of course, slow the spread and hence flatten the curve. But this had other implications. Especially on the daily wage labour or loosely “migrants” as mentioned previously.

Nationwide lockdown thanks to COVID-19, for them means:

1. No work- no job security means no pay or pay protection- hence no food, no money for any small luxury also
2. Crammed up in small huts which are housed in a small slum many times
3. Far away from near and dear ones
4. Fear of dying alone from COVID-19
5. Debtors harassing for repayments or mildly put raising interest costs
6. Fear of leaving the family members to fend for themselves
7. Boredom in the short term and maybe depression in the long run

While these are problems, there are symptoms in which have manifested:

1. Talking the long walk home- many decided to walk home to maybe avoid some of these problems
2. Going hungry — although no official records of it
3. (Violent)Protests- apparently some were even staged

While, these are things that we are seeing now, we might see exacerbated versions of problems and symptoms in the coming few months. In some way or fashion, these are connected to global problems that are mentioned previously. The problems of migration are the ones which are manifesting as problems of this COVID-19.

How has the governments addressed this?

1. Leverage PDS and make it stronger with increased penetration and higher limits per person
2. A stimulus package to take care of lost purchasing power
3. Engage civil society to distribute food and other essentials
4. RBI using some of the levers to steer this mighty ship
5. Now after nearly 40 days of lockdown, arrange for transport for these migrants to move back to their villages

With the last one, maybe they have addressed the majority of the problems or maybe they have not. Only time will tell and we will land up with maybe a different problem. I have a couple of observations here. We are seeing these problems now but have they been lurking below the surface for a long time? Have we ignored the problems? Is migration for work really the only way to address the basic needs of people? Is it solving the actual problem or are we choosing short term over the long term?

At the sake of repetition- who benefits from migrants or migration the most? Is it the migrants? I doubt.

Side Note: Historical Urban Setups

This is a bit of hypothesising. One interesting thing to think about is all ancient urban civilisations have died. Take Harappa & Mohenjo Daro, Mesopotamia, Egyptian, Inca or more recently Damascus or Detroit or Kolkata. They have declined. Is there a lesson here? Do big cities work?

The Media and Businesses

Now that we have looked at the “actual” problem and how it is manifesting itself, the next thing I want to look at the agency which reports it. Why look at them? Do they drive popular opinion? At least for some they serve as a window into what is happening in the world. Yes, I want to talk about media.

The media (let us take centrist and left leaning, right is anyway on the side of the government) has diligently asked questions and raised multiple questions about these migrants. Could the government have done better? All fair questions.

Let us look at some facts-

1. Lockdown was inevitable. Why? Unknown disease, lack of healthcare infra per capita, deadly records of Italy and Spain, WHO guidelines and so on
2. Any spread to villages would create an administrative and healthcare nightmare given the lack of rural healthcare quality
3. Stimulus to economy- does it really have the required outcome that they desire. Let us say they make it ten fold or hundred fold, does it really address the softer problems?
4. Civil society and governments have done their bit to keep the people from going hungry
5. Testing and hospital infra upgrade in a short duration

Nobody has died hungry I would assume, because the media has not reported it. Are they imagining problems at the expense of these migrants? Are they using them to manipulate popular sentiment? Are they fear mongering?

The problems do exist and many I guess understand that, including the government. But how does one balance this? What is the solution? We know about these problems. They are not even telling us factual problems. Numbers and so on. What is happening where? What about deep dive? Just repetition does not help solve the problem.

2 things, if they do, it will help:

1. Help understand the problem with data which is relevant and contextual
2. Remove bias and stop passing judgments like the political parties (Neutrality is dead)

Solutioning, if they are doing, needs to be realistic as well. We have seen how people react and how hard it becomes to contain. As an example, we cannot have testing in every village at this moment. People and kits remain in short supply.

Another Side Note- No bias

(Please note, that I want to play the Devil’s advocate here and not take any sides. There is a lot of subtextual criticism of policy making in this government and previous governments as well.)

As an example, recently the PM has said we have to woo companies who want to move out of China to setup shops here. What about other considerations? Cultural, environmental and so on?

Yet another Side Note: The opposition

One thing that I want to point out is that the opposition to the governments remains the weakest. It has done disservice to the nation by just opposing with nothing constructive to offer. I do not think anyone understands the true pulse of this nation and the opposition in particular has failed big. It shows how disconnected Delhi and its power structure with the citizens (not that I am connected)

I guess, they just focus on their success which is “winning the election” (govt or otherwise).

Businesses and Academia

Then, the experts on these shows and columnists who write on them are business owners and academicians. I really wish they had these things to consider them(many of them are not, a few are. Please forgive me for generalising):

1. Understanding of the present context
2. Expertise in that area
3. Homework
4. Facts and no to bias and opinions

I found a lot of not so famous individuals who were doing their bit with the above. But the celebrated ones were making statements which I believe did not have enough of the above mentioned characteristics.

I am going to take some names here. Nothing personal, but I just want to show the lack of connection with the nation (not that I am connected). I really hope these business leaders understand how narrow their views points are and hope that they can get out of their tunnel vision. (but I do not blame them, I am going to go to the core of the problem in a bit)

NRN mentioned that nation would go hungry and it will kill more people than COVID-19 if we do not lift the lockdown. Kiran Mazumdar Shaw has said that we need to protect livelihoods. Raghuram Rajan for some reason is constantly quoted about lifting lockdown quickly and in a measured way. Rajiv Bajaj has given another alternative- keep the vulnerable at home and rest should be opened. He has even said that the government is a bigger killer than COVID-19. Anand Mahindra has also asked for a removal of lockdown after 49 days calling it adequate. One of the chairman of a major bank has also called for removal of lockdown.

I saw quite a bit of Western academia getting involved as well and many being Indian Americans. What context do they have? Barring a few who have studied at the grassroots?

What are they basing this on? What would happen if it spread the way it did in Spain or Italy? Is money a measure of benefits that people are getting? How practical is Rajiv Bajaj’s idea? What about people who live together in a small house? How is NRN basing that the nation would go hungry? Will we miss on the imports? Is he referring to agricultural setup? If it is the latter, the monsoon is about to begin and the govt has cleared the agro sector to go ahead anyway. If it is about buying power, then anyway the govt will distribute it to the poor for free. What livelihoods is Mrs Shaw talking about, if people are in fear of the disease and if health goes away how can they work?

Which brings to my next question to these industrialists — How much do you understand bottom of the pyramid (or is it just for something else)? What about savings of these people? So, I think these are opinions which are not rooted in facts. It is fine to share opinions but understand the sensitivity of the situation. How much of India do we, that includes these industrialists understand? Are we acting/ commenting in an echo chamber believing that these are the only truths? What would happen if things go bad, will these industrialists stand up and say we asked for it and it was wrong to build such popular opinion?

Why talk about these folks? They are in effect talking about the poor I would assume. The migrants, the labour force directly and indirectly involved in their operations. I really wish they understand what has failed.

My parting question to them is, 30 years of this and 40 years of that has not really fixed anything. We can’t even take 40 days of lockdown — what development are we talking about? Hopefully I will take some examples in a follow up to this.

So, what failed?

So I have said, we do not understand the country. We are biased. I have hinted at ulterior motives. We have wrong success measures. Bad economics. Bad planning. Terrible execution. We are running after the wrong things. And so on. All severe accusations (that is easy).

But I have not mentioned the “actual” problem. Do we have the capacity to understand it and get to the problem statement(s)? Then potential solutions? What tools do we need? What background do we need to have?

Systems aplenty have been under pressure. Healthcare, essential services and so on. Financial markets are going for joy ride, but that is not even remotely connected to this problem. But what has truly failed?

In my humble opinion,

One and only one. Education. Our schools and colleges. Our education policy. Our educational outcomes. Why am saying that?

Let us look at the timeline of COVID-19. It came to India- please note by international air travel alone somewhere in the month of February. Being an unknown quantity, many did not react initially and hence did not take any step. Who travels by air and that too internationally? The educated elite- mostly.

What is the only way to deal with COVID-19 at the moment? Social distancing. Did these people maintain social distancing? Mostly, no. They mingled. They got maids to work for them. They went out for a walk. They bought groceries. They went to malls. They shopped. They travelled. They ate out. Some of them even partied. Why?

1. They probably did not understand social distancing and quarantine
2. They were not told that they have to maintain social distancing
3. They did not care. Or ignored

It is not the migrants, who spread this. It is the educated elite, who can afford to live without jobs in their comfort of their homes who chose to spread this. And they are ones who use the migrants (the migrants that are case in point here) for their chores, for their businesses and so on. BTW, many of them are migrants themselves or are parents or related to the migrants.

So what should do these migrants do? Rebel? Go up in arms? For spreading this deadly disease. For using them to grow richer?

It has happened in the past. But that is not the solution. In fact, historically speaking they have ended up created even more tyrannical regimes. So what next?

Our media has failed us. And ones who have educated them. Bias and partisan reporting have failed. What about those journalistic values? What about separation of facts and opinions. What about verification?

Our business leaders need to understand better (so do most of us).

We need to make our educated learned first. Education as is not effective at all. It is just literacy in a fancy packaging.

Redefine (again IMHO)

We need to redefine a lot of things in the post COVID-19 world-

1. Understand local and stop prophesying that the existing models of development are the only models for betterment of humanity
2. Education is more than 9–5 in school with competitive education as the next step.
3. Local languages need to be leveraged
4. Value education takes precedence rather than skills.
5. People who are opinion and trend setters need greater understanding of India in particular and everybody in general
6. Create jobs which are local with minimal disruption to family life and local setups.
7. Work and meaningful work needs to be thought through. Needless movement of goods and people is harmful of environment.
8. Small is beautiful. It can be contained. Big cities make life seem harder than it is.

Most of it centered around education and learning and hence I said education.

So what next? Who wants to take on the big changes rather than reach for small minor improvements which is taking us nowhere?